“Progress” could fall off the coast of the Far East – Moskovsky Komsomolets

There were no casualties, but the negative consequences of the accident can not be avoided

Today, at 15:52, Views: 1997

Not New York, not Los Angeles and Red Square … May 8 at 5.04 Moscow time the spacecraft “Progress M-27M” entered the dense layers of the atmosphere and began to fall, according to the American ballistics before it reached the southern coast of Chile. All its fragments fell into the Pacific Ocean, so that the earthlings are not threatened. This is the official information. But in reality, things could be different. According to the calculations of one of the most experienced military ballistics, Professor, State Prize Laureate Andrei Nazarenko, “Progress” really could not fall off the coast of Chile, and the coast of the Russian Far East.

Photo: Sergei Ivanov

Andrei Ivanovich, backed by 30 years of military service ballistics, until the last hour flight emergency “progress” led his fall trajectory calculations taking into account features of the atmosphere, Earth’s gravitational field, solar disturbances and even some of the parameters that affect the speed of the flight and the expected fall of the spacecraft to the ground. Its data Nazarenko periodically check with the calculations provided by Command aerospace defense of North America (NORAD).

– Until the last moment I was almost on a par with the Americans, – says Andrey. – However, the late evening of 7 May, they issued a version that the Russian ship “Progress” was to fall on May 8 in 01.52 minutes on the Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) time, then 4.52 in Moscow. Place the fall, according to the specified coordinates (longitude 169 degrees, 37 degrees latitude) met the North Pacific. My prediction at the time looked like this: May 8 0 hours 8 minutes UTC, you have 3 hours 8 minutes in Moscow. According to my information, it should have happened not very far from our shores of the Far East, that is, almost as in the forecast Americans. But my prediction ahead of the US for about 1 hour 34 minutes. And the place I expected another fall.

– Why there was a discrepancy?

– It is possible that the Americans simply made a mistake in the calculations are not accurate enough to determine the last orbital elements, which sometimes is found for them, and gave a bad result for candy. In fact, the ship could fall before. The second option will rehabilitate our overseas colleagues: “Progress” could extend its mission by making an extra turn around the Earth because of the loss of some of its elements. He could, for example, solar cells fall off, which is why decreased ballistic coefficient, and the ship lasted until the time specified in the US report.

– Our services, unlike NORAD, do not publish their forecasts. We just announced the final data of decay time: 5 hours 04 minutes. How they can be more accurately Americans?

– The problem of our two countries prior forecast ballistic decided on the basis of years of experience. And until now, the level of uncertainty of the forecast, and they and we have 10-15% of the remaining lifetime of the spacecraft. I suggested a way to reduce the level of error, but unfortunately, they are not interested.

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Despite the fact that according to official data fragments of “progress” fell ocean and not harm humanity, something any negative consequences of the accident can not be avoided: most likely, have to move the schedule starting next manned spacecraft, the return of the astronauts who were going to Earth next week … at least according to the information from unofficial sources, the shift will be implemented for a whole month. Official Roscosmos is only refers to the words of the deputy head of Alexander Ivanov, who did not announce the postponement of the launch “Soyuz TMA-17M” with Russian cosmonaut Oleg Kononenko, Japanese Kimiey Yui, NASA astronaut Chell Lindgren. He is still scheduled for May 26. With regard to the launch of two “Progress”, one of them to go to the ISS in the 3rd quarter, the second – in the 4th quarter of this year.

According to the head of the Russian segment of the ISS flight of Vladimir Solovyov, the Russian cosmonauts have everything you need to the arrival of the next cargo ship, the launch of which is scheduled for August 6: This fuel, water, food, linen. Will you postponement of the start and landing of manned spacecraft, as well as an earlier start to the ISS next “progress” to become clear after a meeting of the state commission on May 13.