Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Scientists refined the forecast of global warming - Reuters

Iceberg in the form of rocks, archival photo

MOSCOW, December 31 – RIA Novosti. Global Warming provided doubling the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may be stronger than previously thought – the average temperature will rise by at least 3 degrees Celsius, rather than one, 5 degrees, as followed from the previous calculations, according to an article published in the journal Nature.

The Earth’s climate is changing, in particular, due to the increase in greenhouse gases (including carbon dioxide) emissions due to human activities. Degree increase in the average temperature worldwide provided doubling CO2 levels compared to pre-industrial levels is called climate sensitivity. Scientists have developed several ways to define it. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the temperature rise will be from 1.5 degrees to 4.5 degrees.

Stephen Sherwood (Steven Sherwood) from the University of New South Wales (Australia) and his colleagues have refined the data. As the main factor affecting the degree of climate sensitivity, they called the formation of clouds, which depends on the movement of air masses.

so-called low clouds to some extent reduce the impact of the greenhouse effect: they are formed at a height of 2-3 kilometers above the tropical ocean and reflect sunlight, thereby cooling the planet. Consequently, while reducing the number of these clouds the temperature should rise, the scientists write. They used 43 climate models previously developed to assess how the movement of air masses can affect climate change.

Analysis of the data showed that the temperature rise will be at least 3 degrees – twice as much as previously thought. On average, write the authors, the temperature will rise by about 4 degrees. Meanwhile, the report Climate Action Tracker offered similar data: in 2100, the average global temperature will rise by 3.7 degrees. The probability that it will exceed 4 degrees, is about 33%.

Global Warming: observations and predictions

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