President Viktor Yanukovych in Kiev yesterday returned from Moscow with the decision mostly acute macroeconomic problems of the country in 2014: Russia announced its intention to acquire Ukrainian government debt on $ 15 billion, “Gazprom” has lowered at least for the next year the price of gas for “Naftogaz of Ukraine” on the third, which will improve the balance of payments on the $ 2.5 billion acquisition of Russia in the deal are not clear yet, as the answer to the question: Ukraine received enough to prevent financial and banking crisis. Will the Viktor Yanukovych $ 17.5 billion, depends on the situation in 2014 and the development of the political conflict in Kiev.
Negotiations Russia and Ukraine at the presidential level presented publicly Russian bid in domestic conflict in Ukraine.
most sensational part of the agreement – a statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Russia is ready to invest in the Ukrainian foreign debt (Eurobonds) $ 15 billion of funds of the Russian National Wealth Fund (NWF). This is about 19% of NWF, or nearly one-third of the fund, the remaining undistributed after the autumn making the Kremlin and the White House to invest in infrastructure projects in the Russian Federation, as well as earlier decisions on deposits FNB VEB. Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said yesterday that the purchase of Ukrainian national debt will be made in tranches. The first tranche, according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanova to be $ 3 billion (see “Kommersant-Online”) – it solves the short-term problems of the National Bank of Ukraine to maintain hryvnia least until February.
key to the Russian-Ukrainian gas relations issue also received yesterday at least a temporary solution. In the presence of the presidents and live on TV “Gazprom” and “Naftogaz Ukraine” signed an addendum to the contract of 2009 for the purchase and transit of gas. As Vladimir Putin said, “makes it possible addition to” Gazprom “to sell gas to Ukraine at $ 268.5 per thousand cubic meters, which he intends to do.” Essence supplement transit unknown, “Gazprom” does not comment on the situation. Vladimir Putin stressed that this is a temporary solution that should replace “long term agreement” as gas supplies to Ukraine, and on its transit to Europe. Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine Yuriy Boyko later explained that supplements the action is the same as that of the main contracts – until 2019, and they will come into force on January 1. Thus, Ukraine, four years after the signing of another gas contract with Russia, who all this time Kiev officially called bonded, yet has reduced the price by a third. Other arrangements of Russia and Ukraine in the negotiations, which said yesterday hand, macroeconomic not matter.
Whatreceived in exchange for Russia – while strongly unknown. At the same time, Vladimir Putin stressed the temporary nature of the agreement as well as the fact that the supply of cheap gas are for “Gazprom” only “opportunity,” suggests a broader nature and incomplete transaction. “I think that the negotiations ahead and we still know what concessions went to Ukraine in order to get a discount,” – said the head of the International Energy Club Q-club Alexander Todiichuk. Recent proposals of Ukraine in the gas issue were as follows: Kiev is ready to resume purchases at take-or-pay 46 billion cubic meters (bcm to 27 this year) and create a consortium of Russian gas transportation system management. Economic results of the deal for “Gazprom” looks like at least neutral. When applying discounts and maintaining current sales revenue “Gazprom” will be reduced by one-third ($ 3.5 billion). When purchasing at take-or-pay revenues will grow by $ 1.5 billion in addition, provided $ 15 billion Ukraine will pay for part of $ 2 billion in debt “Naftogaz” and gas credits “Gazprombank”. Accordingly, the balance of payments will improve Ukraine’s roughly $ 2.5 billion in 2014.
traditional question of the participation of “Gazprom” in the management of gas transportation system (GTS), which certainly would have guaranteed lowest prices and Kiev, and other concessions, pointedly did not rise. Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych yesterday only said that the aim of working together with Russia is “the creation of conditions for the transparency of the” Ukrainian GTS. Miller, for his part, assured that “the issue has long been a tripartite consortium is not negotiable.” It is a consortium to manage the Ukrainian gas transportation system with the participation of Russia and Europe. In “Gazprom” and “Naftogaz” refused to discuss the substance of the negotiations.
However, if the issue of the gas transportation system upon arrival in Kiev Viktor Yanukovych serve as an occasion for further rapid escalation of domestic conflict, the $ 17.5 billion Kiev may not be enough. Decline in industrial production in the country is yoy about 5%, reserves of the country before entering the trenches NWF threatened. The fact saved whether Moscow Ukrainian hryvnia (and with it, and the whole social policy Mykola Azarov’s government), it will become clear in the coming days. The main threat is the potential for “bank panic” in Ukraine, which is able to absorb the amount far greater than the promised Russia $ 17.5 billion, and about the same amount of reserves Ukrainian National Bank.
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