About 4,000 people were killed in the devastating earthquake in Nepal. According to the Nepalese authorities, more than 6,500 people received injuries of varying severity, and these numbers are likely to grow.
Meanwhile, according to scientists, Saturday crash – a direct consequence of another earthquake that devastated Kathmandu ’81 ago. Can the study of past quakes help anticipate future?
host of “Fifth Floor” Michael Smotryaev discusses this topic with Natalia Mikhailova, an expert on seismology of Kazakhstan.
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Michael Smotryaev : Earthquakes in your daily activities insofar as featured. They intersect the same instruments as those used to monitor nuclear testing?
Natalia Mikhailova: Not really, because that’s what we earthquakes deals constantly, and the nuclear tests followed in the framework of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, we are dealing with very rare. The last nuclear test was in 2013. A quake – 70-100 pieces every day.
MS.: But such as the one that occurred in Nepal, are not so often. Apparently, statistics and large, and medium-sized, and small earthquakes have accumulated large. But as long as it has no predictive value?
NM. : This statistic is used for seismic hazard assessment, to provide information to the builders. And builders use earthquake-resistant technology in the building and reduce damage from future earthquakes.
While the short-term outlook is not possible, the main thing – to reduce the damage, given the future strong earthquakes. In every country where there is seismic activity, be sure to have a seismic zoning map, which give the forecast intensity of future earthquakes and their place.
MS.: The Himalayas, with geological point of view – a young mountain system. There, without any statistics can suggest the possibility of regular earthquakes. French scientists have found a relationship between earthquake three days ago, and several previous.
Such a system of forecasting is hardly possible on the basis of their findings, because the data obtained recently and is unlikely to be processed – but as far as short term may be short-term forecast?
NM. : This term refers to a forecast for a day and watch. While in the world only one known case of the implementation of the forecast.
In 1974, China was made prognosis was evacuated and saved lives. But then nature has given people know that there will be an earthquake.
A huge number mikrotolchkov took place on the eve of rose water levels in wells, there was water in the wells dried up and so on.
And the same in China in 1976 there was the strongest earthquake that could not have been predicted and swept from 200 thousand to a million lives. There is no universal opportunity to make short-term forecast.
In 1980, when this problem began to be studied intensively, including the USSR, were established special landfills, it seemed that the problem is about to be solved. Only the stations, improved methodologies. But now, many years have passed, and the forecast or not.
Many researchers have moved away from this problem and became engaged in other directions, disappointed in rapid practical results.
MS.: You can hardly expect quick results when it comes to this kind of problems. But still, as far as possible. Every time there is a major earthquake, and even loss of human life, start talking – optimists say that each earthquake brings us closer to the development of an algorithm that will predict, but pessimists say that nature is unpredictable, and even once will be able to predict earthquakes, On another occasion no luck.
How do you think it is possible to predict an earthquake up to a few days?
H .M.: I am a pessimist. We have to work hard to make, regardless of prognosis, minimize damage and casualties. And it can only provide construction and seismic hazard assessment.
The mid-term and long-term forecasts are possible. A short-term – only if there will be some unique event. I do not think that every earthquake we get closer to the solution.
MS.: Because we do not have enough statistical data?
NM.: No. Processes that precede the occurrence of a major earthquake, it is very specific. Before some foreshocks occur, then there are small earthquakes before strong. And before some of them do not, and at once the strongest earthquake.
There is nothing universal find remains elusive. All this is happening at great depths, up to 700 km. A variety of tectonic conditions.
MS.: A regional forecast? If the return to work of French scientists? They tracked the chain of earthquakes up to 1255, which are placed in a certain system, and it is possible to extrapolate the future. This is possible in the near future?
NM.: This can be done, and it’s done. In Kazakhstan there are statistics to 250 BC. Strong earthquakes in the region of Central Asia and Kazakhstan.
You can keep track of cycles. We know exactly alternating periods of activation and calm in the region.
Who is going to start in 1992, a period of calm. There were only earthquake with a magnitude of less than 6.5. And before that were about the same as in Nepal.
We are monitoring, tracking the beginning of the period revitalization. During the activation of trying to define the place of the future earthquake. However, the time can be predicted with accuracy up to one year maximum months. A clock and day – is unlikely in the near future.
MS.: Clock, maybe not so important. You need to have enough time to evacuate, but that it does not stretch on for months, because it is very profitable.
NM.: There was an article in the journal American Seismological Association, which said that the predictions of the economy more damage than without them.
The original article: “Пятый floor “: for Earthquake Prediction
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