Scientists predict solar activity until the year 3200, from which it follows that Europe and Russia is waiting for a cold snap – BBC

What is the climate is waiting for Russia and Europe in 15-20 years? They will come if the weather anomaly in the coming decades? Will some areas more severe winter, while in others – a hot summer? It all depends on how much the climate will affect the dynamics of the possible onset of minimum solar magnetic activity. For information on how to behave in future cycles of the sun, according to a publication on the forecast and explain the minima of solar activity, which was published in the journal Scientific Reports .

How many spots on the sun?

Scientists have studied the evolution of the solar magnetic field and the change in the number of spots on it surface. The amplitude and the spatial configuration of the magnetic field of our star changes over time – every 11 years the number of sunspots decreases sharply. Every 90 years this reduction (when it coincides with the 11-year cycle) reduces the number of spots by about half. A 300-400-year lows reduce their numbers almost to zero.

The most famous at least – is the Maunder minimum, which lasted roughly from 1645 to 1715. During this period, there was about 50 sunspots instead of the usual 40-50 thousand.

An analysis of solar radiation showed that his highs and lows almost coincide with the maximum and minimum number of spots. By studying changes in the number of sunspots and analyzing the content of the isotopes carbon-14, beryllium-10 and other glaciers, and trees in the world, the researchers concluded that the solar magnetic activity has a cyclic structure.

The team, consisting of Valentina Zharkova (Northumbria University, UK, the Institute of Space Research, Ukraine), Elena Popova (SINP), Simon John Shepherd (University of Bradford, England) and Sergei Zharkov (Hallsky University, England), analyzed the three solar activity cycle from 1976 to 2009 (21-23 cycles), using the so-called principal component analysis, which reveals in the observational data wave solar magnetic field with the biggest contribution. As a result, they developed a new analysis technique has been found that magnetic waves are generated in pairs in the Sun and foremost pair responsible for the variation of the dipole field (which occurs at change of solar activity). In addition, the researchers were able to derive analytical formulas describing the evolution of the two waves.

Forecast for thousands of years

Using empirically found two waves of the magnetic field, Yelena Popova hypothesized that the minima of solar magnetic activity can be caused by the process of the beating two waves of the magnetic field. Each wave is generated at different depths in the interior of the sun and the waves have similar frequencies. As a result of ascent of the magnetic field on the surface of the waves interact, thus causing runout amplitude of the resulting magnetic field. This leads to a significant decline in the amplitude of the periodic magnetic field for several decades. Comparison of the results of the model was carried out as an array of observed magnetic field data for cycles 21-23, and with the observed data of solar activity in 1000 summer scale. On this scale model calculations Popova were very close to those of the solar magnetic activity.

highlighted the characteristic period of the beats of a few centuries,

Scientists have reconstructed solar activity Since ancient times (since 1200 BC) and predicted it before the year 3200. In the corresponding chart shows that solar activity decreases dramatically about every 350 years. And soon a decrease in solar activity begins today.

Centennial least approach

«Studies have shown that over the past 400 thousand. There were five years of global warming and four ice ages. What caused them? How much solar activity can affect the weather and climate change? This question is still not solved and is extremely relevant and interesting challenge for the various researchers around the world. There are a number of theories that suggest very different degrees of influence of solar activity on weather and climate. In addition to solar activity leading climatologists and other factors that may affect the dynamics of Earth’s climate system. Such a system is a very complex nonlinear system, substantial assistance in the investigation which could bring further use of numerical simulation and analysis paleodata, – says Elena Popova.

– If in the near future there will come a minimum of solar activity, it will provide an opportunity to see what happens with the climate dynamics and test existing theories about the influence of solar activity.

Actually, even if we start from the simple knowledge of the cyclicality of the sun, it can be noted that already fit time for the centennial minimum – the previous one was in the beginning of XX century.

Of course, it is necessary to take into account the effect of other factors on the processes in the atmosphere, but the challenges are always intrigued scientists ».

However, while scientists say about the possibility of the onset of a new ice age, the governments of many countries are still concerned about the fight against global warming: on November 29 in Paris the UN Conference on climate change. It is expected that the conference will sign an agreement to reduce the burden on the planet’s climate system, which from 2020 will replace the currently valid Kyoto Protocol.