This is not expecting anyone. One of the most reliable types of flying equipment ever created Soviet / Russian space-rocket industry, has failed. And not just a failure. There is every reason to believe that the cargo ship “Progress M-27M” launched from Baikonur on April 28 lost.
«Progress” operated since 1978. To date, only one of them did not fulfill the task, and that is not their fault. In August 2011, due to the failure of the launch vehicle “Soyuz-U” not reached the orbit of “Progress M-12M”.
Mystery
In general, the current situation is “progress” obscure, on the verge of mysticism. Fallen in August 2011. “Progress” was carrying into orbit a picture of the famous Russian landscape painter Alexander Shilov. This – a copy of the Victory Banner and the St. George ribbons. But the presence on that and on this “truck” objects of spiritual culture – it is certainly a coincidence.
However, there’s another little moment amenable to rational explanation. “Generally speaking, we have long noticed that automatic often refuses to manned” Soyuz “than unmanned” Progress “- said in an interview with GA in the past one of the leading designers of RSC” Energia “, Professor Leonid Gorshkov. – Well, just “corruption” and more! Automation is easier to “negotiate” with their own kind than the people ».
However, who knows? Can Automatic “relaxes” manned “Soyuz” because “knows” that people on the board will always be able to perform her work, but on the unmanned “progress” is not an alternative to it? But if this is so, in this case, automatic obviously changed currently. It is because of her refusal and any problems on the “Progress M-27M”.
Ivan nods to Peter
Initially, there was information that did not open two of the five antenna systems “course.” Then – that “Progress” is located at 30 kilometers above the calculated orbit. Then it became known that the ship also rotates on its axis, making one complete rotation every 5 seconds. “Yeah – happy creators of” progress “- and we’re not. This blame the third stage carrier rocket “Soyuz”, from which the ship abnormally separated. Because of this, there was a twist, and then everything else is layered, including non-disclosure of antennas ».
« is nonsense, – commented on this version of the pot. – The ship has a stabilization system, which in any case had to stop its rotation. This system has not worked. Why is that? Question to those who assembled and installed on the “progress”. A “Union” nothing to do with. ”
But the intrigue associated with the ill-fated “progress” is not zakanchivayutsya.Obedinennoe US Space Command, watching Russia’s “truck”, found in the place where it should be, 44 fragment. However, the answer to the question, which broke away from these fragments – from a ship or from the third stage carrier yet. If you still on the ship, it could happen only in the case if he had done a serious physical impact – inside or outside. Inside – then an explosion. Outside – means a collision with some space object.
On April 29 held a press conference at the Russian Space Agency has announced version of the explosion. In addition, it said that one of the likely causes of failure of the system of stabilization of the ship was the loss of fuel as a result of the loss of integrity of the fuel system. It also fits into the picture of an explosion or external influence on the “Progress”. But this is only version. The question – what hit or exploded answer is still no.
On the “Progress” do not pass the team Mission Control Center (MCC), or, at least, the operators do not receive MCC confirmation that they have passed. And it happens because from the spacecraft telemetry does not arrive, by which he “talks” with the Earth.
So now have to wait for an unmanaged entry “truck” in the atmosphere. This means that it can fall anywhere along its orbit, including a fairly densely populated areas of the globe, such as London, Tokyo or New York.
The two orbit
The next question is – when it happens. And another intriguing: according to NASA, “Progress” revolves around the Earth in an elliptical orbit, approaching the planet at a distance at perigee 123 kilometers and 193 kilometers. Roskosmos “draws” a circular orbit with parameters 238h306 kilometers. The parameters of these orbits have been determined a few days ago. Every day they change downward.
If the experts are right the American space agency, the “live” Russian ships left the maximum per week. At an altitude of just over 100 kilometers on which the “Progress” perigee passes over the earth, the inhibitory effect of air particles, fly there from the upper layers of the atmosphere, is large enough, so “truck” rather quickly enter the dense layers of the atmosphere. By the way, as scientists believe, really high vacuum, where there is no air particles begins at a height of not less than 800 km.
How to protect Earthlings from falling on their heads pieces of iron weighing more than 7 tons? The answer is: nothing. Not because it is useless, but because it is not necessary. “Before the land will reach a maximum of a few hundred kilograms, – the Gorshkov. – It – engines, possibly titanium tanks. So what? Let me remind you that all the rocket’s third stage – Russian, US, Chinese and so on fall to the ground just as the fall “Progress”. And a part of all of these steps also include propulsion systems and fire-resistant titanium tanks. And while no one complained. ”
It says Gorshkov can only add that every day for the Earth, according to scientists, delivers about 100 tons of various kinds of meteorites. No one so far from them was hurt. However, if you look at the history, you can still remember one case. In 1979, a fragment of the space station “Skylab” was killed in Australia’s cow. The list of victims of cosmic “garbage” ends.
Foreigners will help us
Threatens to whether the crew of the ISS hunger, thirst, lack of air and materials for experiments? Not at all. Stocks of all necessary at the station only if its inhabitants could easily survive on a nondelivery complex regular shipments.
In addition, on June 19 on the ISS has to go to the next flight automatic ship “Dragon” of the company SpaceX, and in August – Japanese “truck» Kounotori 5. Both must deliver to the space station for a total of more than 9 tonnes of cargo.
And if that for some reason did not happen?
Until July 24, the crew will be able to work well in orbit as usual. On 24 July, he will be forced to move to the use of reserves, which it will suffice until September 5. If by that date at the station does not “come” no “truck” that will probably have to raise the question of evacuation, if not the whole crew, then at least part of it.
It is – extremely undesirable option for the ISS there is no universal specialists of the station as a whole. Russian cosmonauts, astronauts United States, Europe and Japan are prepared only to serve their countries’ respective segments. If one of them leaves the station, it may be from a technical point of view, “nedoobsluzhennoy” that will create difficulties in its operation. However, a compromise is always possible when the ISS will be only three crew members: one from the United States, Europe and Japan.
However, the Americans and Japanese will try to the crew was promptly provided with all necessary. On board began a very important experiment – the annual flight of astronaut Scott Kelly and Mikhail Kornienko. The US and its Western partners are very interested in its success.
The Weakest Link, or “buff” Russian cosmonautics
So what did happen with ” Progress “? Where is the weak link, which is torn in the process of construction and preparation of the” truck “for the launch. “It can not be that each of these failures, including non-disclosure and non-arrival of telemetry antennas, would have its own separate reason – says Gorshkov. – Most likely one reason that caused a chain of failures. From my point of view – it is the collapse of the system of control. Perhaps removed experienced leader, and in his place was appointed the “right” person, but one that does not necessarily have the required competence ».
But what I said about the failed launch of” progress “and the problems of the Russian space industry in an interview with Radio Liberty magazine columnist “Top Secret” Vladimir Voronov. According to him, the rejection of “progress” was a consequence of the collapse of the space industry after the end of the Soviet Union “… Even if it is possible to establish cooperation, its component parts have completely different».
«In essence – continues Ravens – Russia’s rocket and space complex consists of private companies, and even if de jure they are not very private, de facto owned by the owners of these companies, you call any of the owners – the manager, general manager, general designer. All of these specific problem space launch owners is merely a tool for profit. And when it comes to profits – poboku everything else! »
« Almost the entire missile industry, – said in the conclusion of the expert – working on the technical basis of 1960-80-ies. Qualified personnel is not enough, if there is high-level specialists – their unity is more footage of the Soviet era. Since the 1990s and up to the present day salary – funny, many managers of the space industry – the people who cosmically distant from her. With rare exception – of course, some key figures may be, are in the active work in the KB, but they are literally on the fingers can be counted ».
It is obvious that the negative trends taking place in the Russian space industry It has become a breeding ground for affliction that happened to “progress”. And while these trends will not be overcome, even the most experienced boosters will start immediately after the roll upside down, and the most reliable ships – spinning helplessly in space like a child’s gyroscope.
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