Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Britain: Weather Service will have a unique supercomputer – BBC Russian

  • October 28, 2014

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For many Britons is vital to know what the weather will be tomorrow

British Meteorological Service is allocated from the treasury 97 million pounds to create unparalleled supercomputer, which will be able to make more accurate predictions of weather and climate modeling.

New computer will run 13 times faster than the currently existing systems, making about 16 quadrillion operations per second.

The computer within the next year to build Ekcetere in southwest Britain, and the first predictions made with it should will appear in September.

The British weather service reported that the new car will bring significant changes in the accuracy of weather forecasts. In recent years the office several times come under fire in connection with the scandalous sunken forecasts.



detailed forecast

“It will allow us to increase the accuracy and detail of our forecasts forecast for tomorrow, the next day, next week, next month or even next century in all respects, “- said the head of the Met Rob Varley.

In addition to increasing the frequency of forecasts in both the UK and the world, a new technology will allow for a more detailed climate analysis for the most important regions.

The computer will be able to provide detailed forecasts across the UK with a spatial resolution of up to 300m and updates every hour. At the moment, for the national projections using a grid with a cell width of 1.5 km and updates every three hours. Detailed information on the wind speed, the intensity of the fog and snow will fall directly into the largest aviation hub.



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Predict the formation of hurricanes – one of the biggest challenges for meteorologists

The new supercomputer will also facilitate the life of a scientist, constantly in need of a powerful resource for the construction of detailed climate models covering a larger time intervals.

According to Varley, the creation of this machine will facilitate the resolution of one of the most the key issues of climate forecasts: it “will allow to provide answers to real questions that concern people”.

“We can tell you that the average global temperature increase of, say, three or four degrees Celsius. But the main question is how important it will be for London? How will this affect Scotland or, say, on my garden plot? At the moment, our technology does not allow us to answer such questions, “said Varley told BBC BBC.

The main British meteorologist said he was glad to investments by the government, which it first emerged in the autumn of 2013.

One of the most powerful

The new machine is partially located in the main office of the meteorological service in Exeter, while part of the computing power unit will be installed in Exeter Science Park. At full power the computer will work by 2017.

Its computing power of 16 petaflops, which means the ability to perform up to 16 quadrillion (16,000,000,000,000,000) arithmetic operations per second.



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For a supercomputer weighing 140 tons, a separate building in Exeter

Model Cray XC40 will be equipped with 480 thousand. processors, which is 12 times greater than current supercomputer Weather Service produced by IBM. The weight of the new car will be 140 tons – or 11 double-decker London buses – that will also be three times heavier than its predecessor.

The volume of his memory will be 120 thousand times the capacity of today’s most advanced smartphone.

Buying a computer would be the largest transaction for the company Cray outside the United States.

“This car will be one of the most powerful computers in the world,” – told the UK Science Minister Greg Clark said, adding that the computer also converts analytical skills meteorological country “.

According to Clark, the supercomputer nominate Britain at the forefront of climate and weather research: “We will become a leader not only in the number of conversations about the weather, but also for the quality of its predictions”.

everyone’s benefit

According to the British weather service, more accurate predictions will also bring social and economic benefits in the amount of 2 billion pounds, namely: early flood forecasting, reducing the number of failures in the transport system, more intelligent decision-making in matters relating to investments in renewable energy sources, as well as better planning, linked to climate change.

Professor Oskfordskogo University in the area of ​​climate science Tim Palmer welcomed the reports of new investments and stressed the need for involvement of more and more powerful computers.

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British weather service often comes under a barrage of criticism for erroneous predictions

“Unlike other sciences, we can not carry out experiments in a lab – said Palmer Bi-bi-si. – We have only two choices: sit back and watch what happens, or try to calculate the model on the computer “.

And that means as explained Palmer that need fantastically complex machines – such as the XC40, or those that appear after.

“This is the beginning of a cycle of important investments, but in any case not the end,” – says climatologist.

According to Professor Palmer, for the most detailed climate models that are now being discussed, need exabytes of free space. To do this, a significant increase in the capacity of the machine Cray XC40, which at the time of the launch will be 17 petabytes (a petabyte is one millon gigabytes; exabytes – 1000 petabytes).

Professor climate change at the University of Leeds Piers Forster said that more powerful computer will significantly improve our understanding of weather events and climate change. He also added that while “it is necessary to maintain and intellectual force”.

“When a weather service has opened access to some of their computers for British universities – is all benefited “.

” These issues are too large scale to deal with them one computer or one organization, but as we continue the fruitful cooperation we will be able to experience the promised benefits “- says the researcher.

Analysis

David Shukman Science Editor BBC BBC

predict the weather on the island, which is located at the intersection of air currents carrying moisture from the Atlantic, from the Arctic cold, extreme temperature swings from the continent – it is incredibly difficult. The wind direction is constantly changing, complex topography and countless local factors further complicate the task.

In this case, the weather plays an incredibly large role in our lives, in the spectrum of whether to take an umbrella, leaving home to of whether to close the runway at the airport. No wonder, therefore, that meteorologists are always in the focus of attention.

The most significant punctures in predicting the weather will remain forever in British history, and even got in dictionaries: 1987 forecaster Michael Fish denied any threat from the looming major hurricane, then let us make a lot of trouble; and in 2009, forecasters predicted hot “barbecue summer”, and eventually the rain fell almost incessantly.

The problem is that many do not notice the gradual improvement in the daily weather forecast. New supercomputer will accelerate the process, giving more accurate data with improved frequency.

At the same time, it can improve the accuracy requirements and expectations. For a country obsessed with the weather, in that there are certain risks.

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